Today the Mexican Cartel supplies 70% of cocaine, fentanyl, heroin, marijuana, and methamphetamine in the United States, an industry that has been responsible for the deaths of 150,000 people from 2006-2012. (Beittel, Mexico: Organized crime and drug trafficking organizations). The economic impact of violence in Mexico has been approximated to 135 Billion USD (Davis, A short history of Mexican drug cartels); with the US and Mexican governments spending billions to combat this problem, to no avail. But how did Mexico reach this point of immense bloodshed and governmental fiasco? The story begins in the early 1990s.

Background of the problem at hand

While small-scale drug trade has existed in Mexico since the early 1900s, this small-scale trade became a global industry with the collapse of the Medellin and Cali Cartel of Colombia. US’s victory in terminating the Colombian Cartels was short-lived: “Colombian drug manufacturers turned to new and safer transit routes through Mexico where enforcement policy was practically non-existent.” (Waters, Inside Mexico’s Drug Wars).

This led to the rise of the Mexican Cartels, primarily the Gulf, Sinaloa, and Juarez Cartels. These Cartels saw a rapid rise to power using corruption and violence to carve their path to absolute power. Their economic successes in supplying the largest drug consumers in the world – The United States – gave them the ability to pay off judges, officers, and politicians. “They also coerce officials into cooperating; assassinations of journalists and public servants by the cartels are relatively common”. (CFR.org Editors, Mexico’s Long War: Drugs, crime, and the cartels)

The Mexican government’s failure to protect its people has contributed to the cartel’s gaining “ideological power”, leading to a large proportion of Mexican youth joining the Cartels and a much larger Mexican population conforming to its rules. This has made the Cartels the “alternate government” or the “illegitimate power source”. The consequence of this – a full-fledged civil war between the government and the cartels (Pointer, The ideological power of the Mexican cartels escalates violence)

Effect on the Mexican civilian

Over the past 20 years, Mexico has been in a constant state of chaos, battle, and suffering: the burden of which is most strongly felt by innocent civilians who have become the collateral damage of this war. The 2011 Human Rights Watch report found that human rights complaints increased sevenfold from 2003-2010, with complaints of torture tripling in the same time period. The shocking fact is that law enforcement plays a large part in conducting these human rights violations, namely a number of counts of forced disappearances and extrajudicial killings.

With the Mexican military busy on the battlefield, there is no one to ensure basic public safety – adding to the perils of the civilians – contributing to this human rights crisis. Additionally, the flawed nature of the Mexican Judicial system makes it so that a mere one of two hundred crimes end in conviction. The flaws of the judicial system don’t end there: “only eight of Mexico’s thirty-two states have laws against forced disappearances and only sixteen have formally criminalized torture”. Quite apparently, this war has disrupted the livelihood of millions.

Mexican Government’s approach to combating the problem

President Felipe Calderón’s (2006-2012) primary method of combatting the problem was the breakdown of the Cartels by hunting major drug kingpins. By deploying the Mexican Military, reinforced by US assistance, Calderón was able to eliminate 25 of the top 37 drug kingpins in Mexico. This created a power struggle for the leadership of the cartels, leading to a lot of internal violence and overall instability in the region. The consequence? Creation of a dozen stronger, more violent drug gangs and 120,000 homicides during his term. (CFR.org Editors, Mexico’s Long War: Drugs, crime, and the cartels)

The next president, Enrique Peña Nieto (2012-2018) followed his predecessor’s footsteps, dumping more and more money into the national forces and military. Once again, this lead to more cartel fragmentation but unfortunately also an increase in homicides – a product of territorial cartel violence.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador launched the “Abrazos, no balazos” scheme, which translates to hugs not bullets. Under this scheme, Obrador reduced military pressure on the cartels and instead worked towards strengthening the socioeconomic standing of the country through job creation. In theory, this would eliminate the prevalence of organized crime by solving the problem at its beginning stage. The program launched an anticorruption drive to disrupt cartel finances, proposed decriminalizing all illegal drugs, and even offered amnesty to cartel members.

Contrary to its intentions, this program caused a large-scale increase in violence and cartel activity, a product of no judicial retribution. “This allowed all but the smallest cartels to act with near impunity, effectively replacing the Mexican government as the de facto power in many provinces, erecting roadblocks, enforcing taxes, and policing entire regions.”

(Reeves & Callum, The impact of Mexico’s “Hugs not bullets” campaign)

Situation today

On 6^th January 2023 Ovidio Guzmán – the son of El Chapo, the world-famous drug lord and former leader of Sinaloa Cartel – was arrested by Mexican authorities. The arrest took place in Culiacán, Sinaloa – the result of a lengthy operation involving 200 special force officers. The aftermath was bloody, with 10 military personnel and 19 gang members losing their lives in the violent clashes taking place in Northern Mexican state. Guzmán was to be extradited to the US immediately, following the same fate as his father, but a Mexican federal judge halted the extradition due to “formalities of the law”. Reporters however believe this postponement of extradition is a precautionary response to the outright bloodshed committed by the Sinaloa cartel. (Plaza et al., Extradition of ‘el chapo’ son to the US halted after 29 killed in arrest operation)

The arrest took place only a few days before US president Joe Biden and Canadian President Justin Trudeau were to visit Mexico city for the North American Leaders Summit. This could have been a way for Obrador to show America that Mexico is in control of the situation, and is actively working to destroy its drug empire.

While this could be perceived as a victory for the Mexican government, the fact is that this will just create more cartel fragmentation – meaning more bloodshed for the country of Mexico, more suffering for its civilians, more damage to its economy, and the continued prevalence of alternate governments.

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