1. The Military Will Prep for an Arctic Incursion
Canada’s military is finally treating the Arctic like the wild frontier it is: strategically positioned, resource-rich and increasingly crowded. China is coveting the North’s vast deposits of copper, nickel, lithium and cobalt, while melting sea ice is opening new shipping lanes through the Northwest Passage, giving Chinese submarines and research vessels (a.k.a. spy ships) new routes through Canadian waters. (Russia, too, is known to deploy “ghost” ships to snoop.) Canada is gearing up with new helicopters, rapid-response navy capabilities and a joint project with Australia to build a next-gen Arctic radar system.
2. While Carney Will Invest Billions in Defense
If the last year has taught us anything, it’s that our relationship with our southern neighbor is nowhere near as friendly as we thought it was. Our false sense of security has put us way behind on our NATO-prescribed military spending. In June, Mark Carney, alongside all other NATO nations, pledged to devote at least five per cent of the national GDP to defense by 2035—and his first federal budget is a strong start, boosting military spending by $84 billion over five years, the largest line item outside of infrastructure and productivity investments. On the shopping list: new armored vehicles, drone-tech improvements and cyber defense infrastructure, along with funds for recruiting personnel and expanding Canada’s defense industry.
3. Nation-Building Will Commence
First up in Carney’s sovereignty project is a massive effort to create new infrastructure and diversify trade. Created under the Building Canada Act, the Major Projects Office will cut red tape, align regulators and coordinate some $116 billion worth of investment. In September, it announced its first slate of priority projects: doubling LNG production in Kitimat, B.C., building a small modular nuclear reactor in Darlington, Ontario, expanding Montreal’s container terminal in Contrecœur, and boosting copper output at McIlvenna Bay in Saskatchewan and Red Chris in B.C. Two months later, it added more mining, LNG and hydro projects to the mix.
4. Political Deepfakes Will Hit Your Feed
In the past year, AI-powered deepfake videos have erroneously depicted Mark Carney sharing investment tips and Justin Trudeau having affairs with members of his cabinet, all with chilling realism. Manitoba has already moved to legislate against them: its new election-misinformation bill would ban the use of altered audio or video designed to influence voters, with penalties of up to $20,000 per day for non-compliance. Beyond that, analysts warn Canada’s patchwork response is too slow, and that without a coordinated national strategy, future elections could be flooded with lies.
5. Alberta Will Ponder Secession
Last year, renegade Alberta Premier Danielle Smith lowered the threshold of signatures required to trigger a referendum on secession from 20 per cent of registered voters down to 10 per cent; around the same time, polls showed that 36 per cent of Albertans supported separation. A group called the Alberta Prosperity Project has hungrily taken up the Wexit cause, while a rival organization called Forever Canadian has already collected more than 450,000 signatures in favor of staying put.
6. The Notwithstanding Clause Will Get Its Day in Court
Section 33 of the Charter of Rights and Freedoms—a.k.a. the notwithstanding clause—has become a golden ticket for Canadian premiers, who have the power to invoke it whenever they want to pass laws that infringe on Charter rights. In 2026, the Supreme Court will hear two appeals protesting its use: one against the government of Saskatchewan, which is trying to ban students from changing pronouns without parental consent, and one against Quebec, which is seeking to bar public servants from wearing religious symbols. Both cases will test where Charter rights end and provincial powers begin.
7. Alberta Will Put Citizenship on Display
Starting in late 2026, Alberta will become the first Canadian province to add citizenship markers to driver’s licenses and provincial ID cards—a move Premier Danielle Smith bills as a win for convenience and security. Albertans, she argues, won’t need to juggle passports or paperwork to prove they’re Canadian, and the province says the change will streamline services and cut red tape. But tucked inside the policy is a political edge: Smith says the new marker will help safeguard elections by making it easier to verify who is eligible to vote. Critics warn it could create a visible divide between citizens and non-citizens and turn everyday identification into a proxy for immigration status.
8. Japan Will Become Our Next Big Trading Partner
Japan has almost completely cut off Russian oil and coal imports, and it’s eyeing Canada as a reliable, democratic replacement. It also wants more Canadian LNG—Mitsubishi already owns 15 per cent of LNG Canada, which began shipping to Asia in June—and is hungry for critical minerals to feed its EV battery factories. Hitachi, meanwhile, is helping Canada build its first small modular reactor. As Carney pushes to reduce Canada’s dependence on the U.S., a Pacific partnership suddenly seems inevitable.
9. The Feds Will Try to Clear the Immigration Backlog
The government may have slashed its immigration targets, but the pipeline is as full as ever: there are currently 2.2 million applications and more than 900,000 overdue. To speed things up, the feds are leaning on tech that lets officers rifle through up to a thousand cases at once, though they insist humans still make the final call. The result? Refusal letters that read like they were spat out by a bot. Lawyers have reported cases being denied due to missing documents that were in fact submitted, as well as financially secure applicants being rejected for supposedly having insufficient funds. In response, applicants will be clogging the federal court system with challenges.
10. Carney and Ford Will Face Off
Ontario Premier Doug Ford has made his name as an outspoken Trump critic, blasting his tariffs as “unjustified, unfair and frankly illegal,” threatening to cut electricity exports and calling out what he sees as trade bullying. Meanwhile, the PM is focused on calm diplomacy: quietly negotiating border agreements, coordinating with provinces on energy security and smoothing tensions over North American supply chains. Ford’s high‑octane public rebukes risk undermining Carney’s careful back-channel maneuvers. Expect fireworks as Canada balances principle and pragmatism, with each approach appealing to different voters. As for which one works better on Trump? We’re still not sure.
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